Constraint Alpha · Worked tool example
ASML: What Growth Does Your Entry Valuation Require?
Pair historical annual sales with explicit valuation assumptions and test the growth required.
Published October 4, 2026 · Agent-assisted source review; human review not claimed.Turn “a critical supplier” into an explicit price question
Identifying an important supplier does not determine the return from buying its shares. To make the entry-price question concrete, combine a reported revenue base with assumptions you can change individually.
This example uses ASML’s historical annual sales. It deliberately uses an invented entry equity value, so nobody mistakes a teaching scenario for a current market quote.
One reported input; seven modeling choices
ASML reports FY2025 total net sales of €32,667 million. Source: January 28, 2026 full-year results release, checked October 4, 2026. We use that completed-year base rather than annualizing one quarter or treating guidance as realized revenue.
| Input | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Annual revenue, EUR millions | 32,667 | Reported FY2025 fact |
| Entry equity value, EUR millions | 400,000 | Invented teaching value; not a market quote |
| Horizon | 5 years | Assumption |
| Revenue growth | 12% annually | Assumption |
| Terminal net margin | 30% | Assumption |
| Terminal P/E | 25× | Assumption |
| Share-count growth | 1% annually | Assumption |
| Required return | 10% annually | Your chosen threshold |
Reproduce the result
Select Load example, review the dated source note, then calculate. Terminal revenue is approximately €57,570 million and terminal equity value approximately €431,778 million. With 1% annual share-count growth, the modeled annual share-price return is only 0.54%.
Under the same margin, terminal multiple and share-count assumptions, achieving a 10% annual return would require terminal revenue of approximately €90,275 million: 22.54% annual growth from the historical base. These figures are outputs of our assumptions, not management projections.
Stress the assumption that matters to you
First reduce the invented entry value while keeping the operating assumptions fixed. Then restore it and reduce the terminal multiple. Finally increase share-count growth. Compare how much of the result depends on price, operating performance and financing.
The worksheet measures a terminal share-price scenario. It excludes dividends, interim distributions, investment taxes and currency effects, and does not separately model debt refinancing. A changed input clears the loaded-example marker. For live research, replace the invented entry value with a dated equity market capitalization in the same currency and document its source yourself.
Read the valuation framework before treating the implied growth rate as a decision signal.