Research note
NVIDIA maps the capacity queue beyond HBM
NVIDIA disclosed dated capacity agreements across substrates, advanced packaging, testing and optical engines on October 21. The figures are supplier targets and reservations, not commissioned or customer-accepted output.
Evidence snapshot
What the evidence says
Short answer: NVIDIA disclosed dated capacity agreements across substrates, advanced packaging, testing and optical engines on October 21. The figures are supplier targets and reservations, not commissioned or customer-accepted output.
- Research as of
- 2026-10-26
- Confidence
- Medium
- Primary sources
- 1
Use the dated primary-source trail below for time-sensitive claims. Reported evidence and public interpretation are kept separate.
Change record
What changed
- Substrate agreements are intended to support a 2.5× aggregate capacity increase over three years; Amkor targets more than 300% growth in interposer-wafer capacity by end-2028.
- NVIDIA expects testing capacity to double from 2026 to 2027 and disclosed a $1.1 billion advance to KYEC; SPIL targets a 15× optical-engine expansion by mid-2027.
Public interpretation
Why it matters
The disclosure identifies which layers NVIDIA treats as scarce and attaches dates and financing to them. Commissioning, yield, qualification and accepted shipments remain the release tests.
Primary-source trail
Evidence
- NVIDIA: supply-chain capacity agreements
Quantified substrate, interposer, testing and optical-engine expansion targets and capacity advances; company statements. · As of 2026-10-21